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Latest Andalusia regional election survey reinforces PP dominance before Sunday vote
The latest Andalusia election polls for May 2026 suggest that the People’s Party (PP) is on the verge of securing another commanding victory in southern Spain, while the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) faces what could become its worst electoral result in the region in modern democratic history.
According to a new survey conducted by 40dB for El País and Cadena SER, the PP led by regional president Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla is projected to win 56 seats in the Andalusian parliament, only two fewer than in the previous election and still above the threshold required for an absolute majority.
The poll projects a dramatic political gap between the two largest parties, with the PP expected to hold exactly double the number of seats forecast for the PSOE.
With regional elections scheduled for this Sunday, the survey reinforces the growing perception that Andalusia has undergone a profound political transformation since the end of Socialist dominance in 2019.
PP consolidates political dominance in Andalusia
The survey places the PP at 43.3% of the vote, giving Moreno Bonilla a commanding lead of approximately 20 percentage points over the PSOE.
Projected seat distribution
Party | Vote Share | Projected Seats |
PP | 43.3% | 56 |
PSOE | 23% | 28 |
Vox | 13.8% | 15 |
Por Andalucía | 8.1% | 6 |
Adelante Andalucía | 6.5% | 4 |
The combined right-wing bloc formed by the PP and Vox would control 71 seats, compared with only 38 seats for left-wing parties.
The figures confirm the PP’s position as the dominant political force in Andalusia, historically considered one of the Socialist Party’s strongest electoral territories.
PSOE faces worst polling numbers in Andalusian history
For the PSOE, the latest Andalusia regional election survey represents a historic collapse.
The poll gives the Socialists just 23% of the vote, below their previous worst result in the 2022 election.
The decline is especially significant considering the PSOE governed Andalusia continuously for 37 years, often with overwhelming majorities.
Historically, the party achieved:
- 52.5% of the vote in 1982
- 50.3% in 2004
- Nearly 50% again in 1990
Now, the latest polling suggests the PSOE may struggle to remain competitive in a region that was once considered its political stronghold.
The candidacy of María Jesús Montero, former deputy prime minister and former finance minister, has so far failed to reverse the party’s downward trajectory.
Vox stabilizes after earlier growth
The latest polling also suggests a slowdown in the expansion of Vox.
The party is projected to win 15 seats, one more than in the previous election, but significantly below the rapid growth recently recorded in other Spanish regions.
Political analysts note that Vox appears to have reached a more stable electoral ceiling in Andalusia, while the PP continues attracting moderate conservative voters.
The survey also indicates voter leakage from Vox toward the political platform linked to activist Alvise Pérez, with nearly 10% of previous Vox voters reportedly shifting support.
Voter loyalty strongly favors the PP
One of the most important findings in the survey is the large difference in voter loyalty between the PP and PSOE.
Voter retention rates
- PP retention: 77.1%
- PSOE retention: 63.9%
The PSOE is losing voters in multiple directions:
- 6.4% shifting to the PP
- 6.9% moving to Por Andalucía
- 7.1% moving to Adelante Andalucía
- 8.3% still undecided
Meanwhile, the PP is also attracting the largest share of former abstention voters.
This dynamic highlights the fragmentation of the left and the growing consolidation of the center-right vote around Moreno Bonilla.
Moreno Bonilla clearly outperforms rivals
The personal popularity of Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla remains one of the key drivers behind the PP’s electoral strength.
The survey shows:
- 93% public recognition
- Strong positive approval ratings
- Clear lead as preferred regional president
When voters were asked who would make the best president of Andalusia:
- Moreno Bonilla received 37.1%
- María Jesús Montero received 16.7%
The gap of more than 20 percentage points reinforces the perception that the election is heavily tilted in favor of the incumbent.
Montero also records one of the weakest approval balances in the survey, with a strongly negative public perception.
Preferred government models favor PP governing alone
Asked what type of government they would prefer after the election, Andalusian voters showed a clear preference for:
- PP governing alone — 26.1%
- PSOE coalition with left-wing parties — 24%
- PP-Vox coalition — 18.5%
Even among conservative voters, support for a formal coalition between the PP and Vox remains relatively limited.
This strengthens Moreno Bonilla’s strategy of presenting the PP as a broad, moderate governing force capable of ruling independently.
Economic concerns dominate the campaign
The survey also reveals the issues shaping voter priorities ahead of the election.
Main concerns among Andalusian voters
- Inflation and cost of living
- Public healthcare
- Employment and labor conditions
- Housing
- Quality of public services
Economic pressure remains a cross-party concern, although immigration issues are significantly more important among right-wing voters.
The findings suggest that practical economic challenges continue to outweigh ideological debates for many Andalusian voters.
National political implications beyond Andalusia
The Andalusia elections 2026 are being closely watched across Spain because of their potential national consequences.
A strong PP result would:
- Reinforce the party’s national momentum
- Strengthen Moreno Bonilla’s leadership profile
- Increase pressure on Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez
- Confirm the PSOE’s erosion in former strongholds
For the Socialists, a historically weak result in Andalusia would represent another major warning sign ahead of future national elections.
A defining election for Andalusia’s political future
With only days remaining before voters head to the polls, the latest Andalusia election latest polls May 2026 indicate that the political map of southern Spain has changed dramatically.
The PP appears close to consolidating long-term dominance in a region once controlled almost entirely by the PSOE.
Meanwhile, the Socialists face increasingly difficult questions about leadership, electoral strategy, and their ability to reconnect with voters in one of Spain’s most politically important autonomous communities.
The key question now is no longer whether the PP will win the election — but how large the victory margin will ultimately become.
Information Source:
https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-andalucia/
https://cadenaser.com/andalucia/
Photo Attribution:
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