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The latest Andalusia regional election 2026 polls suggest the Popular Party (PP) could be within reach of an absolute majority, with incumbent president Juanma Moreno emerging as the clear frontrunner ahead of the May 17 vote.
According to the latest pre-election survey, the most likely outcome places the PP at the critical threshold needed to govern alone, although the final result remains uncertain and highly sensitive to small shifts in voter turnout.
Andalusia Regional Election 2026 Polls: PP Seat Projection
The latest polling data indicates a strong position for the PP, with projections pointing to a possible absolute majority in the Andalusian parliament.
📊 Seat forecast (latest poll)
Metric | PP Projection |
Vote share | 43.6% |
Seats (range) | 51–59 |
Most likely result | 55 seats |
Absolute majority threshold | 55 seats |
👉 Key insight: The PP is not just leading — it is right on the edge of an absolute majority, making this one of the most competitive scenarios in recent Andalusian elections.
How Many Seats Are Needed for an Absolute Majority in Andalusia?
To secure full control of the regional government, a party must reach:
👉 55 seats out of 109
This threshold is crucial because:
- ✔️ Allows single-party government
- ✔️ Avoids coalition negotiations
- ✔️ Ensures legislative stability
Any result below 55 seats would likely force the PP to rely on external support, most likely from Vox.
Is PP Likely to Reach 55 Seats?
The current data suggests that an absolute majority is within reach, but not guaranteed.
- Most likely estimate: 55 seats
- Lower bound: 51 seats
- Upper bound: 59 seats
👉 Key risk:
A swing of just 2–3 seats could determine whether the PP governs alone or needs support.
This makes turnout, late campaign dynamics, and undecided voters particularly important in the final days before the election.
Juanma Moreno: Leadership and Poll Ratings Ahead of the Election
Juanma Moreno, leader of the PP and incumbent president, is not only leading in voting intention but also dominates personal approval metrics:
- ✔️ 43.8% prefer him as regional president
- ✔️ 5.78 average rating, the highest among all candidates
- ✔️ Only candidate with a passing score
👉 Why it matters:
Moreno’s personal popularity is a key factor behind the PP’s strong performance in the polls.
His campaign strategy focuses on:
- political stability
- economic management
- avoiding coalition dependence
PSOE and Other Parties: Seat Distribution Outlook
While the PP leads comfortably, the broader electoral landscape remains fragmented.
📊 Projected seats (most likely scenario)
Party | Seats | Range |
PP | 55 | (51–59) |
PSOE | 31 | (27–34) |
Vox | 13 | (8–17) |
Adelante Andalucía | 6 | (5–7) |
Por Andalucía | 4 | (4–5) |
What Happens If PP Falls Short of an Absolute Majority?
If the PP fails to reach 55 seats:
👉 Vox could become decisive
Possible scenarios:
- PP governs with external support from Vox
- Formal coalition agreement
- Minority government with parliamentary backing
However, Juanma Moreno has consistently signaled a preference for governing alone, distancing himself from coalition models seen in other regions.
Key Issues Driving the Andalusia Election
The election is heavily influenced by regional concerns rather than national politics.
🧠 Top voter concerns
- Healthcare → main issue for 42.2% of voters
- Housing → 12%
- Unemployment → 10.4%
👉 67.1% of voters say improving public healthcare is their main motivation to vote.
Voter Perception and Political Climate
Public opinion remains relatively positive:
- ✔️ 53.3% say the situation in Andalusia is “good or very good”
- ✔️ 61.4% are following the election with strong interest
- ✔️ 70.4% prioritize regional issues over national politics
👉 This environment tends to favor the incumbent government.
Methodology of the Latest Poll
- 📍 Sample: 8,017 respondents
- 📍 Method: telephone interviews
- 📍 Margin of error: ±1.1%
- 📍 Fieldwork: April 10–18, 2026
👉 The poll provides one of the most comprehensive snapshots of voter intention ahead of the election.
A Tight Race with an Absolute Majority Within Reach
The latest Andalusia regional election 2026 polls point to a clear conclusion:
👉 The PP is in a strong position — but the absolute majority is not guaranteed.
Juanma Moreno’s leadership, combined with favorable polling numbers, places the party at the threshold of governing alone. However:
- the margin is extremely narrow
- small shifts could change the outcome
- Vox remains a potential kingmaker
👉 Final takeaway:
The May 17 election is likely to be decided by a handful of seats, making it one of the most closely watched regional votes in Spain.
Information Source:
https://www.cis.es/es/w/el-pp-ganar
Photo Attribution:
2025 12 04 4D Día de la Bandera de Andalucía, by Junta de Andalucía Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license. Wikimedia Commons https://w.wiki/MCFj
The Guadalquivir embankment in Seville. Spain, by Ввласенко Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. Wikimedia Commons: https://w.wiki/KFLN
Sede del Partido Popular, by Triplecaña, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International, Wikimedia Commons: https://w.wiki/Jo66
