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Andalusia heads to the polls on May 17 in one of Spain’s most important regional elections of the year, and the latest Andalusia election polls suggest that incumbent president Juanma Moreno remains the clear favorite to win re-election.
However, while Moreno’s conservative Partido Popular (PP) still leads comfortably, the race for an absolute majority appears tighter than expected just days before voting begins.
The election will determine the composition of the 109-seat Parliament of Andalusia and could have major consequences for Spanish politics nationally.
Andalusia Election Polls: What the Latest Surveys Show
Quick Poll Summary
Party | Vote Projection | Seat Projection |
PP | 40%–45% | 52–58 |
PSOE | 20%–25% | 24–30 |
Vox | 13%–16% | 13–20 |
Por Andalucía | 7%–8% | 4–7 |
Adelante Andalucía | 6%–8% | 4–6 |
Absolute majority required: 55 seats
PP Leads Polls as Juanma Moreno Targets Another Majority
The latest Andalusia election polls 2026 continue to place the PP clearly ahead of all rival parties.
Most polling firms estimate support for Moreno’s party between 40% and 45%, leaving the conservatives close to retaining the absolute majority they achieved in the 2022 regional election.
Latest PP Polling Projections
Polling Firm | PP Vote Share | PP Seats |
SigmaDos | 44.7% | 55–58 |
NC Report | 43.9% | 58 |
GAD3 | 42.3% | 54–56 |
IMOP | 42.8% | 54–56 |
40dB | 43.3% | 54–57 |
Gesop | 40.9% | 52–55 |
Centra | 42.4% | Near majority |
Polling firm SigmaDos gives the PP its strongest forecast, suggesting Moreno could once again govern alone without coalition partners.
For Moreno, the election is not only a regional contest but also a chance to reinforce the PP’s image as Spain’s dominant center-right force ahead of future national elections.
PSOE Risks Another Historic Defeat
The outlook for the Socialist PSOE appears significantly more difficult.
The PSOE is projected to receive between 20% and 25% of the vote, translating into approximately 24 to 30 seats.
That would place the party at or below its already historic low from the previous election.
PSOE Polling Snapshot
Polling Firm | PSOE Vote Share | PSOE Seats |
SigmaDos | 24.7% | 27–30 |
NC Report | 22.8% | 28 |
GAD3 | 21.7% | 26–28 |
IMOP | 21% | 25–27 |
Gesop | 20.5% | 24–27 |
The campaign has been led by María Jesús Montero, one of the most recognizable figures in Spain’s national government.
However, her approval ratings remain weak compared with Moreno’s. According to the Centra survey, Montero scored just 3.77 out of 10 among voters.
Political analysts say the election could become a major political test for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez if the PSOE underperforms again.
Vox Continues to Grow Across Andalusia
The far-right Vox party is also expected to gain support compared with the previous election.
Most surveys estimate Vox between 13% and 16% of the vote, potentially giving the party between 13 and 20 seats in parliament.
Vox Seat Projections
Polling Firm | Vox Vote Share | Vox Seats |
Gesop | 16.3% | 17–20 |
IMOP | 14.4% | 17–19 |
GAD3 | 14.6% | 15–17 |
40dB | 13.8% | 14–16 |
SigmaDos | 12.9% | 13–14 |
Although Vox’s momentum appears slightly weaker than earlier projections suggested months ago, the party could still play a decisive role if the PP falls short of an absolute majority.
Several analysts believe Vox may once again become essential for parliamentary stability in Andalusia.
Fragmented Left Could Split the Progressive Vote
The election is also exposing divisions among left-wing parties outside the PSOE.
Both Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía are expected to secure representation in parliament, although neither is projected to challenge the larger parties directly.
Left-Wing Bloc Projections
Party | Vote Range | Seat Range |
Por Andalucía | 7%–8% | 4–7 |
Adelante Andalucía | 6%–8% | 4–6 |
The competition between both alliances could divide progressive voters in several provinces and make it harder for the broader left to challenge the conservative bloc.
Interestingly, despite lower public recognition, Adelante Andalucía leader José Ignacio García received the highest personal rating among party leaders in the Centra survey.
Why the Andalusia Election Matters for Spain
Although the election is regional, its political impact could extend across Spain.
Andalusia is the country’s most populous autonomous community and has historically shaped national political trends.
The election is being closely watched to see:
- whether the PP can maintain its dominance,
- whether the PSOE can avoid another collapse,
- and whether Vox can continue expanding its national support.
The results could also influence political strategy ahead of Spain’s next general election.
How Many Seats Are Needed to Govern?
The Parliament of Andalusia consists of 109 deputies elected through proportional representation.
A party needs at least 55 seats to secure an absolute majority and govern alone.
Seats by Province
Province | Seats |
Seville | 18 |
Málaga | 17 |
Cádiz | 15 |
Granada | 13 |
Almería | 12 |
Córdoba | 12 |
Huelva | 11 |
Jaén | 11 |
If no party reaches 55 seats, coalition agreements or parliamentary support deals may become necessary.
More Than 40% of Voters Still Undecided
Despite broad agreement among polling firms, a significant number of Andalusian voters remain undecided.
According to Centra, more than 40% of voters had not fully decided which party they would support by the final stretch of the campaign.
Main Factors Influencing Voters
Factor | Percentage |
Party program | 22.7% |
Government performance | 20% |
Leadership candidates | 17.4% |
That uncertainty leaves open the possibility of late swings in turnout and voting behavior that could still affect the final result.
What to Watch on Election Night
Key questions analysts will follow closely:
- Can the PP hold its absolute majority?
- Will the PSOE avoid another historic setback?
- Could Vox become kingmaker again?
- How much support will smaller left-wing parties retain?
Polling stations across Andalusia will open on Sunday morning, with the first exit polls expected shortly after voting ends at 8 p.m. local time.
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Information Source:
https://www.diariodesevilla.es/andalucia/
https://www.centrodeestudiosandaluces.es
Photo Attribution:
12.12.18-C. Salud, by Junta de Andalucía Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license. Wikimedia Commons: https://w.wiki/MhZK
