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More than half of immigrants arriving in Spain eventually leave the country due to soaring housing costs, unstable employment and growing economic insecurity, according to a new study that raises fresh concerns about the country’s long-term demographic future.
Spain has spent decades relying on immigration to offset its aging population and falling birth rate. However, new research published by the economic think tank Funcas suggests that this strategy is becoming increasingly unsustainable.
The report, titled The Limits of Immigration for Demographic Adjustment in Spain, argues that while Spain continues to attract millions of foreign-born residents, it has failed to create the economic conditions needed for many migrants to settle permanently.
Between 2002 and 2024, nearly 15 million foreign-born individuals began residency in Spain. Yet the net increase in the immigrant population during that same period was only around seven million.
In practical terms, more than half of the migrants who arrived later left the country.
Researchers estimate Spain’s immigrant retention rate at approximately 48%, one of the lowest levels in Europe and significantly below the roughly 60% retention rates recorded in countries such as Germany and Sweden.
The study describes the situation as an “external demographic maintenance strategy”, meaning Spain must continuously attract new migrants to compensate for the large number who eventually leave.
Housing Crisis and Unstable Jobs Push Migrants Out
The report identifies economic insecurity as the main reason many immigrants struggle to remain in Spain long term.
Although Spain’s housing crisis affects the wider population, researchers say it has an especially severe impact on newcomers who have not yet established stable careers, financial security or strong social connections.
Over the past decade, housing prices and rental costs have surged in major urban areas, especially in Madrid and Barcelona. At the same time, wages in many sectors have failed to keep pace with inflation and the rising cost of living.
For many migrants, the combination of expensive housing, temporary work contracts and relatively low salaries creates a sense of instability that eventually pushes them to return home or seek better opportunities elsewhere in Europe.
The study notes that, until recently, Spain retained more immigrants only than a small number of European countries, including Cyprus, Slovenia, Estonia, Greece and Poland.
Researchers warn that this constant population turnover creates serious long-term economic consequences.
Workers who see their stay in Spain as temporary are less likely to invest in education, language training or professional development. Many also postpone major financial decisions, frequently change jobs and avoid long-term commitments.
The result is a labor market that struggles to retain skilled workers and maintain productivity.
Analysts say this creates a cycle of instability affecting both workers and employers, while making long-term economic planning more difficult.
Immigration Alone Cannot Solve Spain’s Demographic Crisis
The Funcas study also challenges another widely accepted assumption in Spain’s migration debate: the idea that immigration can permanently reverse falling birth rates and population aging.
Immigrant families have played an important role in supporting births in recent years. Around four in every 10 children born in Spain currently have a migrant background.
However, researchers argue that this demographic effect is temporary.
Over time, fertility rates among foreign-born women tend to align with those of the wider Spanish population. Within one generation, descendants of immigrants generally adopt the same demographic patterns as native-born residents, including having fewer children.
According to the report, 81% of the decline in births since 2009 can be explained by families choosing to have fewer children rather than by a shortage of women of childbearing age.
Spain currently has one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe, driven by economic uncertainty, delayed family formation, housing difficulties and changing social priorities.
Experts argue that immigration may slow demographic decline in the short term, but it cannot fully reverse these structural trends without broader economic and social reforms.
The researchers warn that relying too heavily on immigration as a demographic solution risks hiding deeper structural problems linked to employment conditions, housing affordability and regional inequality.
Aging Migrants Add New Pressure to Spain’s Economy
Another major issue highlighted in the report is the aging of Spain’s immigrant population itself.
Many migrants who arrived during the major immigration boom of the early 2000s are now approaching retirement age.
According to Funcas, 22% of immigrants living in Spain last year were aged 55 or older, representing around two million people.
At the same time, new arrivals are also becoming older. Between 2021 and 2024, nearly one in five people entering Spain was over the age of 55.
This trend complicates the assumption that immigration automatically rejuvenates the population.
While younger workers continue to arrive, the overall demographic profile of migrants is gradually aging alongside the rest of Spain’s population.
Spain is already facing mounting pressure on its pension system and healthcare services as life expectancy rises and birth rates remain historically low.
The study warns that demographic pressures are likely to intensify in the coming decades unless broader structural reforms are introduced.
By 2040, researchers project there will be more than five people over the age of 50 for every child under 15 in Spain.
Regional Inequality Worsens Spain’s Population Divide
The report also highlights significant regional disparities in how immigration affects Spain.
Most newcomers settle in economically dynamic regions such as Madrid, Catalonia and the Balearic Islands, where employment opportunities, transportation infrastructure and established migrant communities are concentrated.
Meanwhile, regions facing the most severe aging and depopulation crises — including Asturias, Galicia and Castile and Leon — receive comparatively little demographic renewal from immigration.
Researchers say this reflects a simple economic reality: people move where jobs, opportunities and support networks already exist.
Rather than balancing Spain’s demographic inequalities, immigration often reinforces existing trends by concentrating population growth in large metropolitan and coastal areas while rural and aging regions continue to lose residents.
That imbalance has become increasingly visible across northern and inland Spain, where school closures, labor shortages and population decline continue despite record immigration figures nationwide.
Spain’s Immigration Model Showing Signs of Strain
The Funcas report concludes that Spain’s current immigration model may help the country “buy time” against demographic decline, but it is increasingly showing signs of strain.
Without major changes to labor conditions, housing affordability and migration policies, researchers argue that immigration’s ability to offset population aging will gradually weaken.
The study calls for a more strategic long-term approach focused not only on attracting migrants, but also on improving retention through stable employment, affordable housing and stronger integration policies.
Analysts warn that failing to address these structural issues could leave Spain trapped in a cycle in which the country depends on ever-higher levels of immigration while remaining unable to retain many of the people it attracts.
For policymakers, the findings add urgency to an already sensitive national debate over housing affordability, labor market reform and the long-term sustainability of Spain’s welfare system.
As demographic pressures intensify across Europe, the Spanish case highlights the limits of relying on immigration alone to solve population aging without addressing the broader economic conditions shaping people’s lives.
Information Source:
https://www.elmundo.es/economia/2026/05/12
Los límites de la inmigración para el ajuste demográfico en España
Photo Attribution:
Plaza de Colón, by Enrique Dans, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic, Wikimedia Commons: https://w.wiki/JGMs
